Numbers can be pretty interesting … even if you aren't a mathematician! Hear me out, I know I sound like I'm talking crazy talk :-). When you check out the numbers (the team statistics) for the UEFA Champions' League final match in a few days, you'll notice an interesting discrepancy between the bookies' opinion, and UEFA's official 'percentage chance to win' stats. So we decided to have a look at the other numbers that went into UEFA's calculation … in the interests of truth in punting!
Overall chance to win:
Bayern's official percentage from UEFA is 58%, while Inter Milan's is 45%. Perhaps they take the fact that Inter hasn't won a Champions League cup in around 45 years into that reckoning… Interestingly, they've left the percentages up from the rest of the season, and some of the teams that were considered to have a better shot of winning than Inter Milan include Olympiacos, Porto, Sevilla and APOEL. Hmm!
Goals scored for and against
Bayern are equal first for goals scored this season, and have an average of 1.75 per game. Inter Milan has scored only 15 to Bayern's 21, but has a pretty close average of 1.25 per game to Bayern's 1.75. Interestingly, Bayern has also had far more goals scored against them than Inter - 13 to 9.
Attempts on target versus attempts wide
Bayern's 79 attempts on target reflect their higher percentage over Inter, who've had 60 shots on target. The attempts wide figures are surprisingly similar; however Inter Milan have played fewer games so it would seem that with equal shots, Inter are actually playing more aggressively.
Red and yellow cards
These two teams have been about as 'naughty' as each other - Bayern have received 3 red cards for the season, Inter have received 2. In the yellow card countup, though, Inter comes out on top. They've received 31, versus Bayern's squeaky clean 21. Real Madrid actually received the most yellow cards for the least games played … 22 overall.
Ball possession %
It seems that UEFA's official percentage chance of winning is taken straight from their ball possession time stats! Bayern has 66% here, Inter has 45%.
The end result? It seems that UEFA does have a pretty good basis for backing Bayern over Inter. What they can't take into account though is that hunger to win, and the spirited playing that got Inter through in their match against Barcelona. They beat the odds then … so why not on Saturday!