Sports Artbitrage - Can it work?

17. January 2010 02:11

At Uwantabet.com, one of the things that we constantly get enquiries about is arbitrage and how often arbitrage events occur.  For those not in the know, arbitrage in any form as basically the concept of "locking in" a profit.  For example, if you had a two horse race with one horse at $2.05 and another horse at $2.10 then it doesn't take a rocket scientist to realize that you can guarantee yourself a very profitable return.

 

In reality, these opportunities do exist but they're rarely as profitable as the example above.  Event whilst typing this blog there is an arbitrage event occurring for an African Nations Cup match.  Now, it's not at the 3.6% that the example above presented.  It's more at the 1% mark.  Now, at that level of profit you might ask yourself, well, why bother.  You could bet $1000 and only make $10.  Surely not worth the risk.  But the power of arbitrage lies not in the individual bets but in the some of the whole.  Let's say you can get one of those returns of 1% every 2 days, then in the course of a year you'd make approximately $1,800.  Not a bad return on your $1000 outlay.

 

But, like all things in the world, it just isn't that easy.  There's a whole range of factors that need to be considered.  Let's look at a few of them:

 

Timing

Timing is everything in arbitrage.  To bet $1000 across 3 books will certainly take some time.  Setting up accounts is generally a once off kind of thing but transferring of funds can take precious seconds.  With some discipline and research though, you can get this down to manageable levels and if you use the right sites (such as uwantabet.com) deep linking straight to the event can save you time.

 

The next thing with the timing is making sure you're not left holding half a profit.  It's no good locking in one half of your bet at one book only to find that the odds have moved on the other book before you get your bet on.  But again, you can protect yourself from this.  Usually with arbitrage opportunities, the position exists because one book is a bit behind in moving their odds (or maybe a bit ahead).  So, you end up with one book with great odds for one outcome and a handful of books with great odds for the other outcome.  This is a no-brainer.  Hit the single book up first and you'll be pretty confident that you'll be able to complete your bet with multiple books offering odds.

 

Money Management

The second very important criteria is money management.  Most sports books have fees associated with excessive withdrawals (in some cases any withdrawals at all) so this needs to be factored into any transaction (or profit calculation) that you place.  This is more a question of making sure you understand the books than anything else and a bit of research goes a long way.  Reading the fine print will give you all the information you need here.  But again, you need to be aware.  As an aside to this, you also need to be aware of betting exchanges that usually take a cut of the odds.  Make sure you know what their cut is going to be before placing your bet.

 

Interrupted Events

Another extremely important (and often overlooked) part of arbitrage is knowing how books rule on interrupted events.  Tennis is the most obvious one here but any event that can be postponed or cancelled mid-way through (such as Baseball) are also worth checking.  For example, in Tennis, there are a wide range of possibilities.  Some books cancel a bet if a match doesn't complete, whereas other books pay out if a set or game is completed.  This is crucial as it could be the difference between a collect and a terrible outcome.  For example, let's say you get your odds of $2.05 and $2.10 on a tennis match and your bet's in play.  So, you have your $506 on the $2.05 and your $494 on your $2.10 bet and you sit back to make your $37 profit on your investment.  Now, let's say that your $2.05 player retires hurt (it happens more than you'd think).  Now, let's say that the book that you placed the bet with considers that a loss, well, you lose your $506.  BUT, if your $2.10 book considers the event a no-contest, you only get your $494 back and you've turned your $37 profit into a $506 loss.  Like everything else, do your research.  All books should clearly state what their odds for any given outcome are and if you're in doubt, ask.

 

Now, this is not an exhaustive list of the ins and outs but it gives you an idea of what you need to get started.  So, the question is, can you make money out of arbitrage?  Well, of course you can.  In fact, I'm sure there's thousands of people around the world that are doing it as I type this.  But, it's not a free ride.  It takes discipline and education.  Having a completed and up to date list of odds is essential as a starting point, and odds comparison site such as Uwantabet.com all provide this information free of charge. The opportunities exist if you know where to look.

Premier League Movers

4. January 2010 07:17

The English Premier League is really starting to tighten up with some very interesting results over the last couple of weeks.  Chelsea have relenquished their stranglehold on the competition with a couple of unexpected draws recently.  This has seen Chelsea drift from an average of $1.53 to $2.11.  You can get them as long as $2.20 if you know where to look.

 

Conversely the likes of Manchester United and Arsenal have shortened in the market.  Arsenal have shortened from $6.27 to $4.17 and Manchester United have shortened from $4.13 to $3.01.  Great odds are available for both of these teams.

 

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Champions League Movers

13. December 2009 06:54

The dust has settled on the Last 16 in the Champions League and with the last game day sorted, the odds have shifted dramatically.

 

The biggest mover has been Bayern Munich whose 4-1 demolition of Juventus has seen there odds more than half from an average of $56.67 to odds of $20.50.  You can still get them at $23.00 though if you know where to look.

 

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The other big mover was CSKA Moskva who finished second in Group B behind Manchester United.  Their odds have almost halved from $162.88 to $88.63 but some books still have them at $101 if you think they're a chance.

World Cup Group Betting now available

8. December 2009 05:53

The draw for the groups at the World Cup has been completed and it has seen some interesting movements in the odds.  England after a great group draw have shortened from an average of $7.21 to $6.51 which is a shift of about 10%.  But, the good news is you can still get them at $7.30 if you know where to look.

 

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Most of the seeded teams have shortened in the market with France, Italy and Spain also shortening in the market.
 
On the flip side, Portugal's "group of death" draw has seen them drift from an average of $18.35 to $25.42 which is a massive shift of close to 40%.  But, if you think that Cristiano Ronaldo can get the Portugese through then you can get them as long as $34.
 
We also have all the Group winners markets available for comparison as well.

 

The NBA is firing up

20. November 2009 16:03

The NBA is starting to fire up. With a long and gruelling season ahead compare the best odds to win the season now.

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Follow the English Premier League

20. November 2009 15:15

The new English Premier League season is under way. Check out the best odds to take the title now.

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The NFL comes alive

19. November 2009 12:17

The NFL season is underway. Think you know who is going to win Super Bowl XLIII? Check out the best betting odds now.

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